The Dynamics of Justification in Policy Reform: Insights from Water Policy Debates in Ireland

Policy reform can be complex and fraught with contending arguments. Although much research has been conducted into the politics of coalition formation, less attention has been devoted to legitimating logics in policy reform. Drawing on the work of Boltanski and Thévenot, this exploratory study addresses this deficit by examining the influence of justifications deployed in policy debates. The paper analyses the role of shifting reasoning in contentious debates concerning attempts to reform water policy, including the introduction of domestic water charges in Ireland. Employing data from parliamentary deliberations, the paper traces the changing forms of justification used by those favouring and opposing the reforms. This examination suggests the importance of aligning an argument’s content with the shifting context into which it is introduced. The paper highlights the benefits of an investigative approach concerning policy justification for understanding policy reform dynamics at the intersection of politics and environmental communication.     

The influence of Chinese population policy change on resources and the environment

Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China. This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population, with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future. This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population, and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model. Drawing upon the results of these two predictions, the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively. Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission, the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side. The findings are as follows: after implementing the universal two-child policy, China’s grain, energy consumption, domestic water demand, and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces. To meet the needs arising from future population growth, food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future, while relying more on imports. Stability of the water supply needs to be improved, especially in Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger. Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.     

海岛居民环境友好行为及其影响因素研究--以长岛县为例

海岛是海洋生态系统的重要组成部分,保护海岛生态环境是推进海洋生态文明建设、保护海洋生态环境的重要方面。海岛居民是保护海岛生态环境的主体之一,研究海岛居民环境友好行为的影响因素,引导和鼓励海岛居民主动采取环境友好行为是改善海岛生态环境的有效途径。本研究在梳理国内外相关文献的基础上,对海岛居民环境友好行为的概念、类型及影响因素进行理论分析,建立包含生态管理行为、消费行为、说服行为、公民行为四个环境友好行为变量,环境态度、环境保护知识、环境经历、社会政策、行为约束五个影响因素变量在内的理论模型。结合海岛生态环境和海岛居民的特点,设计海岛居民版环境友好行为测量量表,并在长岛县进行问卷调查,运用描述性统计分析、结构方程模型分析探究海岛居民环境友好行为的影响因素及影响因素间的内在关系。研究发现:①海岛居民环境友好行为总体水平差异较大,难度较低的环境友好行为实施较好,而难度较高的实施较差;影响因素变量中,环境态度积极,环境经历丰富,环境保护知识掌握较好,相关社会政策较为不利,行为约束偏中性。②环境态度、环境经历、社会政策对海岛居民环境友好行为具有显著正向影响。③环境保护知识对环境态度具有显著正向影响,但对海岛居民环境友好行为无显著影响,存在“知易行难”现象。行为约束对海岛居民环境友好行为无显著影响。④环境经历不仅直接影响海岛居民环境友好行为,而且通过环境态度对海岛居民环境友好行为施加间接影响。基于研究结论,提出了改善海岛居民环境友好行为的对策建议。     

Welfare states and environmental states: a comparative analysis

A framework is presented for thinking about state intervention in developed capitalist economies in two domains: social policy and environmental policy (and, within that, climate-change policy). Five drivers of welfare state development are identified, the ‘five Is’ of Industrialisation: Interests, Institutions, Ideas/Ideologies, and International Influences. Research applying this framework to the postwar development of welfare states in the OECD is summarised, distinguishing two periods: up to 1980, and from 1980 to 2008. How far this framework can contribute to understanding the rise and differential patterns of environmental governance and intervention across advanced capitalist states since 1970 is explored, before briefly comparing and contrasting the determinants of welfare states and environmental states, identifying common drivers in both domains and regime-specific drivers in each. The same framework is then applied to developments since 2008 and into the near future, sketching two potential configurations and speculating on the conditions for closer, more integrated ‘eco-welfare states’.     

Credibility and advocacy in conservation science

Conservation policy sits at the nexus of natural science and politics. On the one hand, conservation scientists strive to maintain scientific credibility by emphasizing that their research findings are the result of disinterested observations of reality. On the other hand, conservation scientists are committed to conservation even if they do not advocate a particular policy. The professional conservation literature offers guidance on negotiating the relationship between scientific objectivity and political advocacy without damaging conservation science's credibility. The value of this guidance, however, may be restricted by limited recognition of credibility's multidimensionality and emergent nature: it emerges through perceptions of expertise, goodwill, and trustworthiness. We used content analysis of the literature to determine how credibility is framed in conservation science as it relates to apparent contradictions between science and advocacy. Credibility typically was framed as a static entity lacking dimensionality. Authors identified expertise or trustworthiness as important, but rarely mentioned goodwill. They usually did not identify expertise, goodwill, or trustworthiness as dimensions of credibility or recognize interactions among these 3 dimensions of credibility. This oversimplification may limit the ability of conservation scientists to contribute to biodiversity conservation. Accounting for the emergent quality and multidimensionality of credibility should enable conservation scientists to advance biodiversity conservation more effectively.     

“结构—行为—绩效”框架下农地整理的管护绩效研究

在分析农地整理建后管护基本内涵的基础上开发了农民满意度绩效量表,引入新制度经济学领域"结构—行为—绩效"(SCP)范式,构建农地整理建后管护的"组织结构—管护行为—管护绩效"的分析框架。以湖北省赤壁市黄盖湖农场和嘉鱼县潘家湾镇为研究区域开展实证研究,通过比率标度法和熵权法生成绩效测度的组合权重并得到满意度绩效,运用调查数据检验建后管护的组织结构和管护行为对管护绩效的影响机理,分析组织结构的工作职能、成长机制以及管护行为中的集体行为和个体行为的影响程度。研究结果显示:受访农民对农地整理的管护绩效评价接近于"一般",企业管护模式下黄盖湖农场和集体管护模式下潘家湾镇的管护绩效存在显著的地区差异;表征管护组织持续发展状态、内部结构完善程度的组织结构类变量以及表征管护资金投入、受益农民群体参与程度的管护行为类变量是显著影响管护绩效的解释变量;黄盖湖农场企业化经营的组织结构、潘家湾镇的综合治理改革以及受到县级财政专项支持等外部要素是造成农地整理管护绩效差异的主要原因。研究结论验证了农地整理建后管护SCP分析框架的有效性,为提升农地整理管护绩效提供了理论依据。     

系统动力学应用于中国区域绿色发展政策仿真的方法学综述

绿色发展是我国"十三五"时期五大发展理念之一,是解决我国发展与保护矛盾的根本途径。系统动力学是模拟宏观社会经济发展趋势和政策效力的常用分析工具,本文对系统动力学在中国区域绿色发展政策仿真中的应用进行了梳理。研究显示:系统动力学应用的区域范围方面,该方法全面应用于从国家直至县域等各个尺度的区域绿色发展研究,区域绿色发展通常被分解为经济、社会、资源、环境等子系统;应用的主要领域方面,水土资源、能源、水环境、固废治理、绿色产业等领域应用较多,大气环境、绿色消费等领域应用相对较少;方法的改进和完善方面,软系统分析法、各类优化方法和地理信息系统与系统动力学的集成应用日益普遍。文末根据文献梳理情况,提出未来应在决策变量设计、历史数据挖掘、环境系统对经济系统的反馈等方面进行方法改进。     

The climate adaptation imperative: local choices targeting global problems?

When confronted with the demands of global climate change, what causes some policy-makers to move the climate adaptation agenda forward in their communities, while others seemingly get little accomplished? To answer this question, we first discuss work on policy-drivers in a coupled human–natural systemic context. This summary review of past research helps us develop a set of competing and complementary explanations for why some communities aggressively pursue climate adaptation policies, while others do less. Following the discussion of policy-drivers, we then undertake an aggregate-level analysis of data collected across the 169 towns in Connecticut regarding climate adaptation, thus linking policy to its fundamental global cause. The quantitative data are augmented with interview data from policy-makers and activists from around the New England region.     

Dividing and Uniting Through Naming: The Case of North Carolina's Sea-Level-Rise Policy

Opponents of a proposed sea-level-rise policy in North Carolina, USA, reasoned rhetorically to promote a narrative claiming that the policy supporters’ efforts had failed to meet the criteria of “good” science and the American dream expectancy of “progress.” The critics worked to hinder policy adoption by naming as “villains” scientists who provided research to support the proposed policy. In addition, the opponents named their own efforts to prevent policy based on “bad” science that would “destroy” the American dream as “heroic.” To more effectively respond to such narratives, scientists and policy proponents need to shift away from reporting just climate change “facts” in the attempt to gain stakeholder support for mitigation and adaptation initiatives. They need to move toward reasoning rhetorically to construct narratives that encourage the public to name them as the “heroes” who will achieve the American dream by their actions to mitigate climate-change outcomes.